Don’t Forecast Blind: Why Pricing and Business Model Come Before the Bottom-Up Plan

Ever built a house starting with the curtains?

That’s what it’s like trying to do a bottom-up financial forecast before locking in your pricing and business model. You’re designing the fine details of a future that has no foundation.

I see this all the time with founders—especially in SaaS and ecommerce.

They open a spreadsheet, get excited, and start plugging in numbers:
“We’ll get 1,000 customers in 6 months… let’s say $100k MRR by month 12…”
But when I ask:
“What are you selling? To who? For how much?”
...they pause. Or worse, shrug.

Oof. (psst I'm guilty of it too)

This isn’t just bad math—it’s fantasy. And fantasy kills good strategy.

Let’s fix that.

First: What is a Bottom-Up Forecast Anyway?

Bottom-up forecasting means starting from the ground:
Your inputs—units sold, price per unit, conversion rates, CAC, churn—build up to your revenue and profit projections.

It’s different from top-down, where you say something like,
“The market is $10B and we just need 0.1% to win!”
(aka, the investor eye-roll generator).

Bottom-up is real. Grounded. Tactical.

But it only works if the base assumptions are legit.

And that begins with your pricing and your business model.

Why You Can’t Forecast Without a Price

Price is the lever that defines your entire business reality.

If you're in SaaS:

• Are you charging per user? Per seat? Per usage?
• Is it $9/month or $900/month?

If you're in ecommerce:

• Is your AOV $25 or $250?
• Are you bundling? Running subscriptions? Wholesale?

You change the price, and the whole model shifts:

• Your CAC tolerance changes.
  
• Your marketing channels change.
  
• Your churn expectations change.
  
• Even your customer type may change.
  

Price isn’t a number. It’s a strategic position.

It tells the market:

“Here’s how valuable this is. Here’s who this is for. Here’s how serious we are.”

Without that, your forecast is guesswork.

Business Model: The Rules of the Game

Before you forecast, ask: What kind of game are you playing?

Let’s break it down:

Each model sets a different cadence for how cash comes in—and how confident you can be about future revenue.

If you haven’t locked in your model, any forecast is just fiction.

Real Talk: What Happens When You Skip This Step

Let’s say you’re an early SaaS founder.

You plug in a bottom-up forecast:

• 100 customers in month 6
• $50/month pricing
• $5,000 MRR

Seems clean.

But then you realize you need to hire a customer success manager to keep those customers happy.

Your $50 price doesn’t support that.

Now you’re trapped. The forecast says one thing. The business needs another.

Or worse, you’re an ecommerce founder forecasting $100k/month in revenue—but your margins are razor thin because you never nailed your pricing strategy. So you’re flying high in revenue and bleeding in cash flow.

Flip the Sequence: Price First. Forecast Second.

Here’s the right order of operations:

1. Decide your pricing strategy.
   
   • Premium? Value-based? Freemium? Penetration pricing?
2. Lock in your business model.
   
   • One-time vs recurring?
   • High-margin, low-volume vs low-margin, high-volume?
3. Pressure test your unit economics.
   
   • Does the price support acquisition, support, ops, and still leave margin?
4. Only then—build the bottom-up model.
   
   • Now your numbers are rooted in reality.

Think of it like this:

Pricing and business model are the rules of chess. Bottom-up forecasting is your game plan.
You can’t build the plan if you don’t know how the pieces move.

Pro Tip: Use Reverse Forecasting

Here’s a founder trick:

If you already know how much revenue you need to be sustainable, work backward:

• What price per unit supports that?
• How many customers does that mean?
• Is that many customers realistic to acquire?
• If not—raise the price, change the model, or shift your plan.

This loop brings clarity. Fast.

Action Steps:

1. Audit your current pricing.
   
   • Is it aligned with the value you provide?
   • Would you pay it if you were your customer?
2. Choose your primary business model.
   
   • Avoid stacking multiple models unless you’ve proven one first.
3. Use a tool (yes, like Futureproof) to test your forecast with real assumptions.
   
   • If your price is too low or your model too weak, the forecast will show it.
4. Validate with customer conversations.
   
   • Ask people what they expect to pay. Then test if your model aligns with that.

Final Thought

Forecasting without pricing is like sailing without a compass.

Looks exciting. But you’ll drift.

So, founders—before you build that sexy spreadsheet with your hockey-stick growth curve, ask the most important question first:

What are we charging? And how do we make money?

Get that right, and your forecast becomes more than a guess.
It becomes your map.